Do the math: climate policies cannot change century-end temperature more than 0.5ºC

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador

Read any article on the Paris agreement and you’ll find lots of degrees. If we follow this pathway we can still keep under two degrees, if we follow the Paris agreement the warming by the end of the century will be three degrees, if we do nothing it will rise ‘by 4-6ºC or more’.

It’s nonsense. Warming depends on emissions, which depend on:

  • GDP
  • The CO2 efficiency of GDP

So how much we warm depends greatly (or mostly) on how much GDP grows. Which nobody knows, of course; world GDP might grow by only 1% a year or jump 4% every year.

The thing is, whatever the GDP growth rate happens to be, it is not controlled by climate policies*

It is therefore a fallacy to assume that climate policies can let us choose between high-warming and low-warming scenarios. If…

View original post 699 more words

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